Saturday, 7 December 2013

What if Scotland votes for independence next year?

Thanks to Churchmouse for this comment from Patrick -
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Sequence of events after a YES would be:

1. Parties, 'historic moment', blah, blah, blah and lots of alcohol
2. Detailed negotiations commence once the hangovers clear
3. All party support for not allowing a Sterling area, BoE not to be a Scottish lender of last resort, etc. Salmond's Sterling plan collapses.
4. The EU confirm that the UK was part of the EU but Scotland left and must now reapply - just as they have said before. (They weren't kidding). Scottish government forced into a Euro or Thistle decision on currency - opts for Euro.
5. Scottish people utraged at vote 'Indpendence get Brussels' and SNP collapse in their first GE - with Labour winning a landslide.
6. Scottish government accept there is no mandate for a Euro decision and creates the Thistle - initially at parity with the Pound. Scotland's EU membership application goes on hold.
7. Scotland gets 125bn POUNDS of national debt as its share of the split. Equal to 75% of their GDP. But they argue about this and creditors get very nervous. The Thistle weakens and Scotland's debt as measured in Thistles explodes to well over 100% GDP.
8. Scotland forced into an immediate fiscal and currency crisis. The Central Bank of Scotland prints money to meet their govt debt financing needs - further weaknening the Thistle. Scotland goes to well over 150% GDP in debt and market appetite for Thistle debt dies.
9. Scotland forced into a rapid deflationary austerity / currency death spiral and goes bankrupt.
10. Tumbleweed blows through the streets as zombies and wild dogs fight each other for a few scraps of human flesh.

2 comments:

  1. Now why, I wonder, do most Scots resident in England say that they hope Scotland votes for independence and promise to work as brickie's mates to help with the rebuilding of Hadrian's Wall, just this time sufficiently strong to keep those benefit and buckie addicts in their place, on the north of the wall.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bit north of Hadrian's wall this time please!

      Delete

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